Ryan Serhant
Founder & CEO at SERHANT. | Star & EP of Netflix’s Owning Manhattan | 3X Bestselling Author | Investor in Major League Pickleball, RLTY Capital, Blank Street, and more
April 24, 2026
Mortgage rates are volatile… again. But this is not really a housing story, it is an oil story, an inflation story, and a bond market story.
Most people think the housing market moves on it’s own, but that assumption is costing them.
The real driver of mortgage rates today is not local inventory, not buyer demand, and not even housing fundamentals on their own. It is the global pricing of risk.
Geopolitical tensions around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz are pushing oil prices into a more unpredictable range. And as we know, when oil moves, inflation expectations react quickly. When inflation expectations rise, Treasury yields follow. And when the 10 year Treasury moves, mortgage rates get repriced almost immediately.
That chain reaction is felt most in housing.
As of April 23, 2026, Freddie Mac put the average 30-year mortgage rate at 6.23%, down slightly from 6.30% the week before. That tells you something important.
Rates are not moving in one clean direction. They are being pulled around by macro forces that shift week to week, sometimes day to day.
At the same time, the 10-year Treasury is hovering around 4.30%, reflecting ongoing pressure from inflation expectations tied to energy markets and global instability.
This is not a stable rate environment. It is a reactive one…
And inflation expectations are what the bond market trades on.
That is why mortgage rates feel unpredictable. Because they are not being set by a single narrative. They are being repriced in real time based on global risk.
This is exactly where buyers and sellers get stuck.
They are waiting for a clean signal.
They want rates to fall, headlines to calm down, and certainty to come back before they act.
That signal is not coming anytime soon.
And by the time it does, the opportunity will already be priced in.
Real estate has never rewarded comfort. It rewards conviction.
What I’m Telling My Clients:
Stop trying to time the perfect rate.
You are not buying a rate. You are buying an asset.
Rates matter, but they are only one piece of the deal. Price, negotiation, competition, and long-term hold strategy matter just as much, if not more.
Right now, something very specific is happening in the market.
The financing environment is less favorable than it was during the ultra-low rate era. But the buying environment is more flexible than it has been in years.
Inventory has improved in many markets. Sellers are more negotiable. Price growth has cooled compared to the peak frenzy.
That creates leverage for buyers who are actually willing to act.
A buyer waiting for rates to drop might walk into a more competitive market with less negotiating power. A buyer who steps in during volatility can often secure better pricing, concessions, or terms and then refinance later if rates improve.
That is a strategy… Not a guess.
For sellers, the shift is just as important.
Do not confuse hesitation with lack of demand.
Demand is still there. It is just more selective.
When rates move unpredictably, buyers become sharper. They care more about pricing, condition, and presentation.
They do not give the benefit of the doubt. In this market, average does not sell.
The properties that win are turnkey, well marketed, and priced correctly from day one.
The key data point right now is not just where rates are. It is how they are behaving.
A 6.23% mortgage rate that moves week to week alongside a 4.30% 10 year Treasury tells you the market is being driven externally.
Oil volatility tied to Iran adds another layer of pressure that did not exist in the same way just a few months ago. That volatility feeds inflation expectations, which feeds bond yields, which feeds directly into borrowing costs.
That is the system.
And it is not stabilizing yet.
The biggest mistake you can make right now is thinking the housing market will simplify before you act.
It won’t.
This is a market where the signals are coming from outside real estate. If you do not understand that, everything feels random.
If you do understand it, the strategy becomes clearer.
Buy based on asset quality and long-term positioning, not short-term rate predictions.
Sell with precision, not hope.
Because this market is not broken.
It is just less forgiving.
And the people who win in markets like this are the ones who understand what is actually driving the numbers before everyone else does.
