International Monetary Fund
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April 16, 2026
Dear readers,
In today’s daily briefing from the 2026 Spring Meetings, we spotlight the Managing Director’s Global Policy Agenda, global public debt risks, the importance of safeguarding economic integrity, the challenges low-income countries face in securing external financing, and much more.
Middle East War Could Lead to a Dozen New IMF Country Programs
The IMF expects to face demand for at least a dozen new country programs as a result of the war in the Middle East and ructions in global energy markets, Kristalina Georgieva said on Wednesday.
The IMF Managing Director told a press briefing that near-term demand for financial support is expected to range between $20 billion and $50 billion. This would comprise new programs in at least a dozen countries, a number of them in sub-Saharan Africa, as well as an expansion of some of the Fund’s existing 39 financing programs, she said.
Georgieva added that the IMF is coordinating with the World Bank, the International Energy Agency and other partners to maximize the combined response to the conflict, which this week led the IMF to downgrade its projection for global growth and warn of deeper cuts if the conflict continues.
“We serve as the firefighter for our member countries, and we are committed to helping them navigate this complex landscape,” Georgieva said.
IMF Urges Fiscal Discipline as War Tests Policymakers
Rising energy and food prices triggered by the war in the Middle East are once again testing the global economy at a time when public finances are already under strain in many countries, according to the IMF’s latest Fiscal Monitor.
Rodrigo Valdes, Director of the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department, said at a press briefing that affected countries had far less fiscal room for maneuver than in the past. Governments should provide support where needed, while ensuring that measures are temporary, targeted, and consistent with fiscal frameworks.
“Broad-based energy subsidies or excise reductions are not the best tool; they distort price signals, are fiscally costly, regressive, and hard to unwind — and they create international spillovers,” he added.
The Fiscal Monitor also highlights a deeper and more persistent challenge: public debt is projected to keep rising, reaching about 99 percent of global GDP by 2028. In a severe scenario, global debt could climb to around 121 percent of GDP.
Against this backdrop, the IMF’s message is clear: rebuild fiscal buffers once conditions stabilize. To find out more, read the Fiscal Monitor blog.
Energy Shock Poses Global Risk, Says Qatar’s Finance Minister
“What we are seeing so far is really the tip of the iceberg in terms of impact,” said Qatar’s Minister of Finance, Ali bin Ahmed Al Kuwari. “The full-fledged impact is coming. I think in one month, two months’ time, you’re going to see a huge economic impact.”
Speaking with the IMF’s Jihad Azour, Al Kuwari outlined the global economic fallout from the war in the Middle East and how Qatar is managing the disruptions to critical energy and trade routes. He emphasized the importance of re-opening the Strait of Hormuz, noting that 20 percent of the world’s energy flows through it. “If this remains closed, I think it’s going to be a big issue for the global economy,” he warned.
Al Kuwari said Qatar’s conservative fiscal framework, strong buffers, and crisis preparedness have helped stabilize the economy despite a temporary halt in LNG exports. Looking ahead, he highlighted continued progress on economic diversification and stronger Gulf Cooperation Council coordination, calling further regional integration one of the key positive outcomes of the crisis.
Confronting Corruption and Illicit Financial Flows
“Some might wonder why the Fund is spending time on these issues rather than traditional areas of fiscal and monetary policy, but the truth is that corruption, money laundering, and other financial crimes are macro-critical,” said First Deputy Managing Director Dan Katz at a seminar on Safeguarding Economic Integrity today.
He emphasized that corruption and illicit financial flows drain public resources, distort markets, and erode confidence in the financial system, threatening economic growth and stability.
IMF Capacity Development Director Catriona Purfield said that “as much as six trillion U.S. dollars are laundered every single year, and IMF research shows that the annual cost of bribery amounts to two trillion.”
Fayval Williams, Jamaica’s Minister of Finance and the Public Service, highlighted an accomplishment by her country in 2024, when it was removed from the money laundering “gray list” of the Financial Action Task Force. She stressed the importance of making a national effort. “In our case, all of Jamaica understands the value of having a financial system that is strengthened, that is not a weak link for money laundering.”
Other panelists included Zambia’s Felix Nkulukusa, Secretary to the Treasury, Ministry of Finance, and National Planning, who spoke about his country’s experience and appreciation for capacity development efforts by the IMF and other institutions.
Adapting to a New Global Financing Landscape
“You can’t take a vaccine for this geopolitical tension.” Thus said the Governor of the National Bank of Ethiopia, Eyob Tekalign Tolina, as he discussed how low-income countries (LICs) can navigate the global financing environment. Panelists also included Faheen Allibhoy, Head of J.P. Morgan’s Development Finance and Advisory; Monica Brand Engel, Co-founder and Managing Partner at Quona Capital; and Lindsey Whyte, Director General for International Finance at HM Treasury (UK).
One key recommendation is that donors prioritize concessional resources, focusing more on poorer and fragile countries. This should be coupled with domestic efforts: LICs need to promote reforms to safeguard macroeconomic stability and improve the business environments, so that the private sector can become an engine of growth and poverty reduction.
As Monica Brand Engel put it: “We look at what we call macro stability because if you don’t have an independent central bank, if you have exchange controls… that makes it very difficult for a private investor to even consider investing.”
Thailand seeks investment rebound to lift growth
Thailand will look to reverse a slide in investment to stimulate domestic demand and revive economic growth, the country’s Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister said on Wednesday.
Ekniti Nitithanprapas told a Governor Talks panel that investment had halved to about 20 percent of GDP, but he aimed to lift it to around 30 percent over the next two to three years.
As a large net importer of oil and gas, Thailand could turn the current energy crisis into an opportunity by transitioning away from fossil fuels and investing in solar and other forms of renewable energy, he said.
Ethiopia’s Financial Sector Overhaul
Over the past two years, Ethiopia has embarked on a comprehensive transformation of its monetary and exchange rate regimes, adopting a more flexible exchange rate, moving to an interest rate-based monetary policy, and ending central bank financing of government.
“We’ve reoriented the whole direction of the economy, so]it was critical to sequence the reforms and coordinate very well with critical partners,” said Eyob Tekalign Tolina, Governor of the National Bank of Ethiopia, during a panel discussing the country’s recent financial sector overhaul.
Facing economic challenges despite years of above-average growth, Ethiopia had experienced deep macrofinancial imbalances, according to the IMF’s Bryan Gurhy . “At the end point there was half a month of import coverage on reserves, inflation peaked at over 30 percent, and there was very constrained domestic resource mobilization.”
Supported by IMF and World Bank technical expertise, and with additional financial support from the European Union, Ethiopian authorities have reoriented its economic model toward private sector-led development, including reforms in markets and institutions.
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